I hear you knocking

Now and then you find a new word or phrase creeping into public discourse, something new that gets picked up as the new buzz word. Recently, that phrase has been “inflection point”: used extensively by politicians and academics to indicate what used to be called a turning point. It’s a term from mathematics, indicating a point on a curve at which the curvature changes from convex to concave or vice versa. Whatever the source, it seems to fit the times.

History is full of turning points, times when events and entire societies can change direction in fundamental ways, through revolutions of various kinds – political, cultural, ideological, etc.. These inflection points can be temporary or permanent, sometimes violent and often almost imperceptible until time gives the perspective of hindsight. In Canada, for example, a meeting of political leaders in 1865, in an effort to find a solution to a local crisis in the Province of Canada, led in time to Confederation and the creation of the Dominion of Canada. No-one, or very few, realised at the time the potential outcome of that meeting.

Politicians today are using that term, inflection point, to describe the situation worldwide as they see it, and I think they’re right. We are in a time of potential change, though which direction that change will take is unclear at the moment, and the possibilities are worrying. It is understood that there has been a move to the Right in politics generally, and Europe has been dealing with the rise of extreme populist movements in a number of countries. The parallels with the 1930’s have been clear, and the circumstances which gave rise to fascist dictatorships then are increasingly replicated today.

This may seem an unrealistic description of the situation, but the dangers are very real. The most obvious illustration is in the country which claims to be the strongest democracy in history, the United States. The rise of Trump and his MAGA movement has been both a surprise and a puzzle to many. Given the character of the man, his proven record of lies, fraud, promises of dictatorship, persecution of opponents and media, it is astonishing that he continues to be supported by the Republican Party and could regain power in November. The traditional norms of politics and public life have been overturned by him and his followers in a very short period of time.

There is a belief that he could lose the election later this year, and hopes rest on that possibility. But, given the record of the period since the last election, when people thought the Trump phenomenon had been dealt with, it is only realistic to wonder what will happen after November. If Trump wins, there is general agreement around the world, as well as in the US, that democracy itself could be in danger: an end to US support for NATO and Ukraine, and, instead, enthusiastic support for Putin and his ambitions in Europe. This would not be an issue for the US alone, not to mention the encouragement it would give to other populist groups abroad, including in Canada.

But what if Trump loses? Given his response to his last defeat at the polls, and the incredible acceptance by so many of his Big Lie that the election had been stolen, given the almost universal submission of the traditional Republican Party to Trump and his movement, is it not realistic to think that a victory for Biden would be portrayed as yet another stolen election? What would be the reaction of the MAGA crowd, already prepared to use violence to restore their “Rightful King”? Whatever the results of the election, it will not be the end of the story. It may be that Trump will be convicted and sentenced to jail at some point, but will that stop his followers? Will they not see that as another attack on their leader by a politically corrupt Justice Department and courts?

The future is troubling, this is indeed an inflection point, “a point on a curve at which the curvature changes from convex to concave or vice versa”. A move to an American Dictatorship is not a fantasy: it happened in other democratic countries before, when populations voted for the Great Leader, willing to accept a dictatorship to solve what they saw as otherwise insoluble problems in society. It can happen again, and we have to be aware of the fact.

This is not something Canada is immune to, either. Politicians everywhere have seen how successful Trump’s approach has been, and they have shown their willingness to adopt it to one degree or another. Added to the mix has been the interference of Russia and China in other countries’ elections, making it more difficult to know the legitimate from the manipulated. And added to that, to make matters ever more dangerous, is the rise of AI, as artificial intelligence makes it more and more likely that we can be fooled by fake videos, recordings, and photographs designed to influence how we see candidates, governments, and thereby how we vote. Chaos is knocking. Never has it been more important for citizens to pay attention, inform and educate themselves, and think carefully about their vote.